Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

New research on Antarctic ice cores finds that past “natural” spikes in atmospheric CO₂ were far slower than today’s human‑driven rise, reinforcing concerns about the unprecedented speed of current climate change. Commenters debate how serious and near‑term this threat is compared to risks from AGI or nuclear war, with some emphasizing potential societal collapse, migration crises, and food insecurity, while others argue impacts will be severe but manageable through adaptation, new energy technologies, and possibly geoengineering. The thread also touches on responsibility for emissions (China vs Western consumption), the role of capitalism and regulation, and whether climate models and past “doomsday” predictions have been accurate.

Relative Existential Risks

  • Several commenters frame a “polycrisis”: climate change, AGI, nuclear war, plus bio/antibiotic resistance.
  • Disagreement on ranking: some see climate as the dominant near-term risk; others put nukes or AGI above it; a minority claim climate is a “non‑threat.”

Climate Change: Severity, Mechanisms, and Impacts

  • Many stress that the rate of warming and CO₂ increase is unprecedented in the last 50k years, even if absolute temperatures were higher in deep time.
  • Concerns include: droughts, floods, crop failures, heatwaves (wet‑bulb temperatures), climate refugees, and conflict over land and water.
  • Others argue impacts will be serious but non‑existential this century (e.g., ~4 °C max; big GDP hit but civilization survives).
  • Some downplay risk: point to past warm periods, claim humans can adapt or just “move inland,” and note declining climate‑related deaths; critics call this cherry‑picking.

Mitigation, Adaptation, Geoengineering

  • Debate over “tech will save us” vs. structural/political change.
  • Geoengineering (notably stratospheric aerosol injection and reflective surfaces) is discussed as likely and cheap relative to decarbonization, but:
    • Critics worry about dependence (“grab the tiger’s tail”), unintended side effects when aerosols fall, and moral hazard.
  • Carbon removal is seen as physically costly; some say adaptation plus new energy (advanced fission, geothermal, fusion) is the long‑term path.

Economics, Responsibility, and China

  • Arguments over capitalism: some call to end or heavily regulate it; others see free markets as best available but needing fixes for externalities, monopolies, and labor power.
  • Emissions attribution:
    • One side emphasizes China’s huge absolute emissions.
    • Another emphasizes per‑capita emissions, offshoring of Western manufacturing, and consumer demand in rich countries.
  • Carbon taxes and trade measures are suggested to internalize emissions.

AGI Risk and AI Progress

  • Wide spectrum:
    • Some see AGI risk as hype or distant sci‑fi.
    • Others think AGI by ~2030 is plausible and an existential risk, citing rapid ML progress.
  • Discussion touches on:
    • Difference between plot vs. theme in sci‑fi depictions of AI.
    • Whether fiction meaningfully shapes tech and risk awareness.
    • Clarifications that AGI ≠ consciousness; it means human‑level performance across tasks.

Nuclear War Risk

  • Views range from “almost zero” (deterrence, human safeguards) to “real and underappreciated,” especially for regional conflicts or miscalculation.
  • Historical near‑misses and chain‑of‑command norms are cited; some worry about future leaders or unstable successions.

Data, Paleoclimate, and Uncertainties

  • Some critique the article title’s “natural” wording and the limits of ice‑core resolution for brief, fast events.
  • Visualizations are debated: one camp stresses recent warming’s speed; another shows very long‑term temperature swings to argue today is still relatively cool.
  • Disagreements persist over tipping points, runaway scenarios, and how conservative or alarmist mainstream climate projections are.

Social & Psychological Reactions

  • Several lament climate “doomerism,” others argue strong warnings are needed to counter habitual under‑reaction.
  • Some describe personal adaptation (moving to higher ground, prepping) and distrust in political will.
  • Thread noted as polarized, with frustration over blame‑shifting (individuals vs. corporations vs. states) and over fear being used as either hype or control.