Air missile accident emerges as probable cause of Azerbaijan E190tragedy

Evidence of External Explosion and Shrapnel

• Multiple linked cabin videos reportedly show small holes and punctures in seats, clothing, passengers, and life vests consistent with shrapnel before the crash.
• Photos and videos of the tail section show numerous perforations; commenters say metal is bent inward, implying an explosion outside the fuselage.
• Several participants assert that shrapnel damage is “pretty much established” from visual evidence and survivor accounts of a loud external bang.

Competing Theories on Cause

• One line of argument: a surface-to-air missile (SAM) with a blast-fragmentation or continuous-rod warhead, likened to systems such as Buk, S‑300, S‑400, or Pantsir, based on damage patterns similar to MH17 and other known SAM strikes.
• Counterpoint: some initially suggest an uncontained engine (turbine blade) failure could create bomb-like shrapnel, but others note certification standards and the location of damage (tail) make this unlikely.
• Russian-linked media narratives about an internal oxygen tank explosion are mentioned and widely viewed as disinformation or at least inconsistent with visible external blast signatures.
• Consensus in the thread: external weapon strike is more plausible, but exact weapon type remains unclear.

Flight Path, Diversions, and ATC Behavior

• Plane was diverted from Grozny due to fog, later suffering an explosion near Grozny during multiple landing attempts.
• Reports in the thread claim the aircraft was denied emergency landings at Grozny, Makhachkala, and Mineralnye Vody, then diverted toward Aktau (Kazakhstan), potentially while being steered largely by thrust due to hydraulic loss.
• Dual GPS failure and regional GPS jamming are mentioned; some suggest this, plus control damage and desire to avoid mountains or further attacks, may explain the route over the Caspian. Exact decision logic is unclear.

Responsibility, Drones, and Air Defense Context

• Many commenters think Russian air defenses likely mistook the Embraer 190 for a Ukrainian drone or small manned aircraft converted to a kamikaze drone, amid active drone attacks on Grozny and other targets.
• Others note that Kazakhstan also has air defenses, but given the reported hit over Russia and diversion sequence, the working assumption in the thread is a Russian SAM engagement; this is acknowledged as still unproven.
• Discussion covers transponders, ADS‑B, and military IFF, with some arguing an airliner should have been clearly identifiable, while others point to jamming, operator competence, and radar limitations.

Survivability and Crew Performance

• Commenters are struck by the violence of the crash and the number of survivors, crediting both modern airframe design and apparent skill of the flight crew using differential thrust with degraded controls.
• The event is compared to past partial-control disasters (e.g., UA232) where pilots were seen as heroic.

Broader Political and Moral Debate

• Thread references a history of civilian airliner shootdowns worldwide (including by Russia/USSR and the US) and debates whether such events are “accidents” versus negligent or reckless acts.
• Some argue Russia is repeatedly irresponsible and deceptive regarding civilian casualties; others broaden criticism to other states’ military errors.
• There is disagreement over how the international community “should” respond; options discussed range from doing little beyond rhetoric to substantially increasing military aid to Ukraine, with strong views but no consensus.