Is Germany's gold safe in New York ?

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

Practical options for moving or “moving” the gold

  • Germany holds roughly 1,400 tonnes in the US; physically moving it would be a multi‑year logistics project by road, air, and sea.
  • Several commenters argue it’s easier to sell gold in New York and buy equivalent gold in Europe (as France reportedly did), effectively “moving” it via markets.
  • Debate over whether arbitrage and spreads roughly equal shipping and insurance costs; in theory they should converge, but markets and timing imperfections mean they only approximate this.

Gold quality, audits, and conspiracy claims

  • Some claim US‑stored bars may be lower purity from old coin melts and that foreign owners have limited inspection rights.
  • Others counter that the Bundesbank publishes a detailed bar list (weights and purities) and has recast some bars up to modern standards.
  • Tungsten‑filled bar stories are raised but characterized by others as long‑running “gold bug” conspiracy theories with only isolated, historic cases.

Ownership, possession, and US leverage

  • Several comments stress the difference between legal ownership and physical possession; if the US refused export, Germany’s options would be limited.
  • Some argue the US would never do this due to market fallout; others note that power politics (“nuclear umbrella”, post‑war arrangements) mean Washington ultimately has the ability, if not formal authority.

Historical precedents and German policy to date

  • France and the Netherlands previously repatriated or rotated gold from New York.
  • Germany already moved substantial amounts from the US and Paris to Frankfurt (2013–2017) and maintains some in New York for dollar–euro settlement and trade reasons.
  • There is mention of a recent German petition for full repatriation; some see inertia and bureaucratic calcification as reasons it hasn’t all moved.

Geopolitics, sanctions, and asset safety

  • Repeated comparisons to EU/US freezing of Russian assets, EU seizure‑adjacent actions (Cyprus bail‑in), the CFA franc system, and UK retention of Venezuelan gold.
  • One side says these show how easy it is to “freeze” another state’s assets and why Germany should not trust US custody, especially under an erratic administration.
  • Others distinguish between freezing vs confiscating and argue Germany, as a core ally, is in a very different category than sanctioned adversaries.

Broader trust in the US order

  • Long thread on whether distrust is Trump‑specific or rooted in decades of US behavior (Nixon closing the gold window, wars, treaty flip‑flops).
  • Some emphasize that the mere mainstreaming of the question “is German gold safe in New York?” signals a significant erosion of confidence in US reliability.