We've already seen category 6 hurricanes – scientists want to make it official
Scientists are proposing an extension to the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale to add a Category 6, arguing that several recent storms already exceed the current top threshold and that warming oceans may make such extremes more common. Commenters weigh whether wind speed alone is a meaningful way to rate destructive potential, pointing out that storm surge, rainfall, local building codes, and data-quality issues all complicate simple category labels. Many see value in clearer, future‑proofed risk communication, but note that any scale change must be carefully explained to avoid public confusion and politicized claims of data manipulation.
Scope of the Proposed Category 6 (and Beyond)
- Many argue that storms already exceed current Cat 5 and the scale should extend to Cat 6, possibly higher, to avoid lumping very different extremes together.
- Some want explicit future-proofing (e.g., categories 6–10, or leaving “room” like a Cat 7 at ~225 mph).
- Others think Cat 5 already effectively means “total destruction,” so higher numbers add little practical value.
Data Quality and “Strongest Storms”
- Users digging into IBTrACS find many extremely intense storms in the 1950s–60s, raising suspicion about older measurements.
- Differences between agencies (e.g., Chinese vs Japanese vs US records) and 1‑minute vs other averaging times complicate comparisons.
- There is debate over bias corrections applied to historical wind data; some see justified homogenization, others see risky post‑hoc manipulation.
How the Saffir–Simpson Scale Works
- Cutoffs are seen as partly arbitrary but intended to correlate with damage to built structures and be roughly logarithmic.
- Discussion notes the scale’s origin, its link (but not alignment) with the Beaufort scale, and the removal of storm surge/flooding from the official definition.
- Some criticize single-number categories as cruder than the complex reality of building quality, local codes, and debris.
Wind vs Other Hazards
- Many highlight that storm surge and rainfall flooding can make lower-category storms devastating.
- Wind is easier to forecast pre‑landfall; surge and rainfall are more location‑ and timing-dependent.
- Comparisons are made to tornado (F/EF) and earthquake scales, which blend physical measures with observed damage.
Communication and Public Behavior
- Several commenters stress that categories are mainly a communication tool; “Cat 5 means leave” already conveys maximum urgency.
- Some worry that adding Cat 6 could either improve evacuation compliance (“this is worse than 5”) or just shift public complacency (“5 is the new 4”).
- Others urge involving social scientists and communicators and clearly announcing any scale changes to avoid confusion and denialist misuse.
Climate Change, Trends, and Skepticism
- Some see stronger top-end storms and recent hypothetical Cat 6 cases as consistent with warming oceans.
- Others note that frequency records (e.g., named storms, most-intense storms by pressure, Florida landfalls) don’t show simple upward trends.
- One line of debate: climate impacts may increase intensity at the high end (fatter “tail”) without changing total storm counts.