The Vision Pro is a flop

Scale of “flop” vs. success

• Some argue ~400k units at ~$3.5k is impressive for a v1 niche device with no killer app, especially given component constraints and US‑only launch.
• Others say Apple reportedly cut internal forecasts and production before international rollout; for a company used to tens of millions of units, a few hundred thousand is “rounding error” and thus a flop.
• Comparisons: Wii U (14M units) considered a legendary flop for a much smaller company; Vision Pro at 400–600k looks tiny for Apple.

Costs, expectations, and long game

• Thread cites estimates of $10–15B R&D for Vision Pro; some say sub‑million sales plus weak ecosystem = failure, others say costs can be amortized over later, more successful generations.
• Rumors of a 3M unit first‑year target are disputed; some note supply chain leaks suggesting 400–600k was always the realistic cap.
• Many emphasize Apple’s pattern: ship a polished v1, iterate for a decade, and only then judge.

User experience & use cases

• Common complaints: heavy and front‑loaded, isolating, short battery life, limited FOV and resolution vs. good monitors, and “solution in search of a problem.”
• Enthusiasts highlight:
  • Mac Virtual Display and multi‑screen work while traveling (some call it “indispensable” for digital nomads).
  • High‑quality movie watching and immersive environments; some say 3D films finally “work.”
• But many owners (across VR in general) report initial “wow” followed by dust‑collecting shelfware.

Ecosystem & developers

• Strong criticism that Apple launched without enough compelling first‑party apps or content and made it hard/expensive for third parties to justify investing.
• Tiny install base plus high hardware price mean even featured apps barely recoup accessory costs.
• Interaction model (eye tracking + pinch) is praised as natural, but “truly spatial” apps are rare.

VR/AR and broader tech skepticism

• Debate whether AR/VR is “inevitable” or a decades‑long mirage that keeps re‑emerging without mainstream traction.
• Concerns about social isolation, “torment nexus” dystopias, resource use, and climate impact vs. arguments that we should want big companies to take risky swings, accept some flops, and push boundaries.

Apple’s strategy and leadership

• Some see Vision Pro and the canceled car as evidence of a rudderless, services‑obsessed Apple that missed AI and neglected Siri.
• Others point to Apple Silicon, Watch, and AirPods as proof the company still plays and wins long games, even if non‑iPhone products never hit iPhone‑scale numbers.