Apple Ramps Up R&D Intensity to Pre-iPhone Levels

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

Apple’s return to pre‑iPhone levels of R&D intensity is prompting speculation about where its billions are going, from AR/VR headsets and eventual AR glasses to custom silicon, in‑house modems, battery advances and spatial computing. Many expect a stronger push into on‑device AI and a rebuilt Siri, as well as ambitious health features like non‑invasive glucose monitoring on the Apple Watch, while others point to behind‑the‑scenes spending on manufacturing and supply‑chain independence. Alongside this, contributors debate whether products like Vision Pro and AirPods represent iPhone‑level innovation or signs of a mature, slower‑moving Apple facing new threats from AI‑centric platforms.

Where R&D Money Might Be Going

  • Speculation includes: AR glasses, Vision Pro follow‑ons, Apple Watch medical sensors, GPUs, Apple Silicon expansion, in‑house cellular modems, microLED, and battery tech.
  • Some think a big chunk is “unsexy” work: refining existing components, manufacturing processes, and moving production away from China.
  • Autonomous EV work is discussed (including test cars with lidar); status of an “Apple Car” is unclear and possibly stalled.

AI and Next‑Gen Siri

  • Many expect heavy LLM investment: on‑device models, context‑aware interfaces, better natural language command parsing.
  • Bloomberg reports Apple has its own LLM (“Ajax”) and internal chatbot; Siri is being rebuilt on top of this.
  • Opinions vary on branding: keep Siri vs rebrand; consensus that usefulness and local processing/privacy will matter more.

AR/VR, Vision Pro, and New Interfaces

  • Vision Pro seen by some as Apple’s next major platform and a “new primary computer,” requiring years of R&D to shrink cost and size.
  • Others see it as only incrementally better than high‑end Meta headsets.
  • Strong focus on controller‑free, eye/hand‑based UI as a potential UI revolution, echoing mouse/click‑wheel/multitouch.
  • Debate over whether head‑worn computers are practical given weight, heat, and battery; tied to arguments over the future of Moore’s Law.

Hardware, Chips, and Supply Chain

  • Apple Silicon effort described as vast and expensive, spanning many custom chips across all product lines, plus a special AR coprocessor.
  • Some argue owning silicon is actually economical at Apple’s scale and a response to vendor frustration.
  • In‑house modem R&D is seen as both a cost and bargaining leverage against existing suppliers.

Health Tech and Glucose Monitoring

  • Non‑invasive glucose monitoring on Apple Watch is repeatedly called a “holy grail.”
  • Diabetic commenters describe large quality‑of‑life gains over current CGMs and finger‑pricks, though accuracy for non‑invasive methods is doubted.
  • Broader public health potential is noted if large populations had continuous or frequent glucose data.

Debate: Is Apple Still Innovative?

  • Critics claim Apple is bloated, over‑segmented (too many iPhone models), and hasn’t matched the transformative impact of the iPhone.
  • Defenders cite Vision Pro, AirPods, and Apple Silicon as category‑defining or at least major advances, arguing execution and UX matter more than raw novelty.
  • Some frame innovation as new form factors (Mac, iPod, iPhone, Vision Pro); others say many recent products are just size variants of the iPhone.

R&D Accounting and Market Views

  • Several note that “R&D” includes most engineering salaries and cloud compute; it’s not purely blue‑sky research.
  • Clarification that Apple’s R&D is up again as a percentage of sales, returning to pre‑iPhone intensity.
  • Market commentary: some analysts are bearish on Apple’s growth and Vision Pro’s impact; others dismiss this and point to Apple’s long‑term resilience.

Other Future Directions

  • Suggestions include robotics as a natural extension of “spatial computing.”
  • Some view deeply integrated, AI‑centric mobile OS features as critical to defending Apple’s position against Android.