300k airplanes in five years
Commenters use the history of U.S. aircraft production in World War II to probe whether any country today—especially China or the United States—could rapidly mobilize industry on a similar scale. Much of the debate centers on China’s current dominance in steel, aluminum, shipbuilding, drones, and missiles versus America’s advantages in geography, energy, alliances, and power projection, and how those factors would play out in a major conflict or arms race. Participants also question whether modern political economies, supply chains, and defense industries—hampered by cost overruns and limited munitions output—can sustain high‑intensity warfare in an era of nuclear deterrence and autonomous weapons.
US vs. China Industrial Capacity and Wartime Production
- Many argue China now vastly outproduces the US in steel, aluminum, vehicles, shipbuilding, missiles, and industrial robotics, suggesting a stronger capacity for rapid wartime scaling.
- Others counter that pre‑war output ≠ wartime output: China’s industry is geographically concentrated on the vulnerable eastern coast and dependent on imported oil, whereas US industry and energy are more geographically dispersed.
- Debate over whether the US could “do a WWII again”: some say the “sleeping giant” culture and emergency powers still exist; others think bureaucracy, corporatism, and degraded manufacturing make a repeat unlikely.
Future War: Drones, Missiles, and Naval/Air Doctrine
- Many expect mass cheap drones and missiles to play the role WWII aircraft once did; quantity and swarming seen as decisive.
- Others argue chips, EW, and range are the main constraints; quadcopters are limited and easily jammed or out-ranged.
- Disagreement over operational concepts: some say the US would fight China via standoff and blockade (missiles, Rapid Dragon, carriers, submarines), not trench-style drone warfare; others doubt US missile stockpiles and production rates are sufficient.
- Repeated concern that the US industrial base for missiles and artillery is far too small for a large-scale Pacific war.
WWII Lessons and the USSR’s Role
- Several note the article over-focuses on US output and underplays Soviet production and casualties.
- Others respond that Soviet success was heavily supported by US/Allied Lend-Lease (fuel, trucks, locomotives, food, materials), arguing neither side could have won alone.
- Discussions highlight Soviet pre‑war industrialization, relocation of factories, and the brutality and inefficiency of its war machine.
Artillery, Shells, and Ukraine
- Commenters highlight that Russia is currently outproducing US+EU in artillery shells.
- Some say this reflects doctrine differences (NATO emphasizes airpower over artillery) and political underfunding rather than inherent incapacity.
- Others see it as a warning sign that Western industrial and procurement systems are too slow and fragile.
Deindustrialization, Globalization, and Policy
- Strong thread on how US manufacturing moved to China: profit seeking, cheaper labor, lax regulation, and financialization are cited as drivers.
- Some argue markets won’t preserve “strategic” capacity without tariffs/subsidies; others warn protectionism is wasteful and corruption-prone.
- Debate over whether offshoring was a short-sighted elite choice, an inevitable outcome of comparative advantage, or a deliberate geopolitical bet that China would liberalize.
Politics, Society, and War Appetite
- Several comments worry about domestic polarization, aging leadership, and loss of civic confidence in the US, versus perceived “can-do” momentum in China.
- Others emphasize US alliance networks and geography as enduring advantages, and stress that a full US–China hot war would risk nuclear escalation and catastrophic trade/food disruptions.
Moral and Historical Reflections
- Some note war-time industrial “miracles” came with huge human costs: dangerous training, high casualty expectations, pollution, and enormous material waste.
- There is intermittent skepticism about romanticizing WWII-style total mobilization as desirable or repeatable.