It Still Can't Do My Job: Four Years of Moving Goalposts (2022–2026)

Definition of AGI and “Moving Goalposts”

• Many argue “AGI” is vague or meaningless; human-level intelligence is seen as an arbitrary benchmark that keeps shifting as capabilities improve.
• Others insist AGI is meaningful: typically “able to replace humans in almost any job” or “pass the Turing test,” or more ambitious definitions like autonomous planetary terraforming.
• Some claim AGI already exists (e.g., modern LLMs passing practical Turing-like tests), while others assert AGI will never happen, or not within 50 years.
• The Turing test itself is debated: whether it’s a “there exists at least one setting where humans are fooled” vs “consistent indistinguishability,” and whether ELIZA already satisfied the weak form.

Capabilities, Limits, and Hallucinations

• Participants agree models are rapidly gaining competence across domains, especially coding and content generation.
• Strong skepticism remains around reliability: hallucinations and arbitrary confabulations are seen as disqualifying for many safety‑critical uses.
• Comparisons to human error are disputed: some say humans also “make things up,” others respond that healthy professionals do not hallucinate at LLM frequency or severity.

Impact on Work and Labor Structure

• Many see LLMs as powerful tools that augment, not replace, knowledge workers, especially programmers.
• There is concern that “AI babysitter” or reviewer roles are weak, low-paid, and ineffective at catching rare but catastrophic errors.
• Some expect more consolidation of roles (devs absorbing QA, project admin), with non-technical coordination roles becoming vulnerable.
• Others doubt software engineering and broader white‑collar work can be fully automated.

Economics, Power, and Ethics

• Strong frustration with AI boosterism and CEO hype: repeated, near-term predictions of AGI, job extinction, and “too dangerous to release” claims are seen as market manipulation.
• Worries include: concentration of capital, devaluation of average humans, potential underclass or worse, and private firms controlling critical AI infrastructure.
• Some fear autonomous weapons and “Terminator/SkyNet” scenarios; others think alignment debates are still speculative.

Cultural and Meta Observations

• Several note growing psychological dependence on LLMs for writing and thinking, even in posts criticizing AI.
• The article’s apparent AI-generated prose and “IQ: yes” gag draw mixed reactions, from amusement to annoyance.