The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

Valuation of SpaceX’s “Space” Segment

  • Many commenters see $8/share for the launch/space segment as surprisingly low given SpaceX’s dominance in orbital launch.
  • Others argue valuation should track cash generation: launch is capital-intensive with limited demand, while Starlink/connectivity holds most of the financial value.
  • Some note the “space” side currently loses money due to heavy Starship investment, even if the overall company is profitable.

Launch Economics and Market Demand

  • One side claims Falcon 9 launch margins are extremely high and only appear low because profits are reinvested; competition is currently weak.
  • Another side stresses that demand for launch is inherently small; without Starlink, Falcon 9’s cadence and revenue would be far lower.
  • There is disagreement over whether lowering launch costs will unlock vast new markets vs. only niche, marginal use cases.

Competitive Landscape and Technological Lead

  • Pro‑SpaceX voices argue competitors are roughly a decade behind and the gap is widening, likening this to semiconductor fabrication leads.
  • Skeptics question whether any company can maintain or increase such a lead indefinitely; they point to Tesla’s eroding dominance in EVs.

Starship’s Potential and Risks

  • Supporters see Starship as transformative via huge capacity and order‑of‑magnitude lower $/kg, with Starlink as an anchor customer.
  • Critics highlight schedule slips, comparison to historical programs (Saturn V, Shuttle), and the need to actually earn profits, not just fly.

Orbital Data Centers and Space Manufacturing

  • Strong skepticism toward massive “orbital compute” visions: power levels, radiator size, satellite counts, replacement rates, and maintenance are seen as wildly impractical.
  • Some note that cooling, reliability, and hands‑on maintenance challenges are underplayed in optimistic studies.
  • Space factories for fibers/pharma are viewed by many as solution‑in‑search‑of‑problem, with launch and recovery costs likely overwhelming quality gains.

Helium‑3 and Space Resources

  • Mining lunar He‑3 is widely dismissed as uneconomic: extremely low concentration, alternative production paths, and unclear near‑term uses.

Financial Framing and Bubble Concerns

  • Several commenters see the model as engineered to justify enormous capital raises and banking fees.
  • There is concern that SpaceX’s valuation is driven by AI/datacenter hype and optimistic timelines, with some expecting a major correction when narratives fade.