The US grocery slowdown is real
US grocery sales by volume are falling even as prices keep rising, highlighting how households are cutting back, trading down to cheaper retailers and brands, and wasting less food because they simply have less disposable income. Commenters point to stagnant real wages, high housing costs, and reduced SNAP benefits as key drivers, while also debating the role of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, food delivery services, and bulk shopping in shifting where and how people buy food. The broader concern is that essential items like meat, fresh produce, and even basic staples are becoming unaffordable for many, with knock-on effects for health, inequality, and local retailers.
Rising Grocery Prices, Stagnant Wages, and Rent Pressure
- Many tie the slowdown in grocery volumes to people simply having less real disposable income: wages lag inflation, especially rent.
- Disagreement over framing rent as “coercive”: some see landlords as performing a service via property management; others argue that eviction enforcement and criminalization of homelessness make housing effectively compulsory at any price.
- Several note having to “shop down market” (cheaper stores/brands) as evidence of reduced purchasing power, not improved thrift.
Food Waste and Household Behavior
- Debate over how much of the ~400+ lbs/person/year US food waste is consumer vs production/distribution.
- Anecdotes range from “virtually zero waste” households to families with kids tossing 1–2 lbs of fruit weekly and frequent leftovers.
- Strategies to cut waste: smaller portions, strict leftovers usage, composting, dehydrating, repurposing overripe fruit (e.g., banana bread).
- Time, energy, space, and appliance constraints limit such strategies for many, especially in low-income or “food desert/tundra” contexts.
Meat Prices and Supply Dynamics
- Beef prices are widely reported as painful; some cite herd culling, drought, and even screwworm outbreaks as contributors.
- Workarounds include buying half/whole cows directly from farms, but this requires thousands of dollars upfront plus freezer space.
- Others counter that non-premium cuts and chicken/pork can still be found relatively cheaply on sale, though prices have risen versus pre-2020.
GLP-1 Drugs and Changing Consumption
- Multiple commenters suggest GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are a nontrivial factor in lower grocery and fast-food demand, with estimates of 7–15% adult usage and ~4–5% lower spend among users.
- Others think this effect is overstated compared to basic inflation and income issues, and question how many can afford the drugs.
- There is speculation (unclear) that GLP-1s may also reduce other impulsive behaviors, potentially affecting broader consumption.
Coping Strategies and Structural Concerns
- Shifts reported: more bulk buying (where feasible), discount chains (Aldi, Walmart, Costco), coupons, generic brands, and reduced meat/fresh produce.
- Some turn to gardening, backyard chickens, farmers’ markets, or organic foods (often in short supply).
- Concerns extend to corporate “pricing power,” SNAP benefit cuts, energy and fertilizer shocks from wars, and a “K-shaped” economy where non-tech sectors and low-income households are squeezed hardest.