SPCX is now Wall Street's most shorted new stock
SPCX, the newly listed SpaceX stock, has quickly become Wall Street’s most shorted recent IPO as its share price slips below the offering level and analysts question a valuation that once ranged from single-digit billions to multiple trillions. Commenters debate whether heavy short interest signals fundamental overvaluation or simply reflects trading mechanics and volatility, especially with more than twice as many shares set to become tradable after lockup periods expire. Broader concerns center on speculative “Musk premium” pricing, comparisons to other meme-like stocks such as Tesla, and whether SpaceX’s impressive but unfinished technology can eventually justify its current market cap.
Valuation, Price Targets, and Downside Risk
- Many see SPCX as significantly overvalued even after dropping slightly below its $135 IPO price (recent quotes around $124–134).
- Cited analyst views range from ~$30–40 “fair value” to $70+ on the low end, versus some banks still calling it a $300 stock.
- A Goldman analyst range of ~$6B–$5T is mocked as signaling deep uncertainty; achieving consensus $2T by 2030 was said to imply ~100x revenue multiples.
- Some argue rational investors shouldn’t pay above the present value of future cash flows; others highlight that “vibes,” sentiment, and meme-stock dynamics can dominate.
- Comparisons to Tesla’s very high P/E and to more traditional automakers are used to argue both SPCX and Tesla are “crazily overpriced.”
IPO Performance, Lockups, and Insider Selling
- Several commenters note IPOs commonly drift below offer price; SPCX is viewed as “especially bad” given hype and fundamentals.
- Key risk flagged: upcoming lockup expirations that will release large amounts of stock from early investors/employees who have much lower cost bases (down to ~$30).
- Expectation: post-lockup selling could significantly pressure the price; some shorts are explicitly timing around these dates.
- Discussion notes that lockup terms are contractual, set by underwriters, sometimes with phased schedules and potential waivers.
Short Interest, Market Mechanics, and Options
- One camp stresses that every short sale has a buyer taking the opposite side, so dollar volume of optimism equals pessimism at the transaction price.
- Others counter that heavy shorting is meaningful: it adds incremental selling pressure, pushes prices down to find new buyers, and reflects skewed sentiment.
- Mechanics covered: share borrowing, re-lending chains, effective “synthetic” share creation, and distinction between legal shorting and illegal naked shorts.
- Options activity: earlier call volume outnumbering puts is interpreted by some as call writing (synthetic shorting). Others consider longer-dated out-of-the-money puts as a safer bearish bet, while warning about possible short squeezes.
Fundamentals, Technology, and Industry Context
- SpaceX’s tech lead (reuse, engines, scale, Starship) is praised, but some argue China/Japan are rapidly converging, especially on landing and reusability.
- Starship test aborts have moved the stock intraday, which some see as irrational given these are experimental flights yet to enter regular service.
- Debate over whether an overhyped IPO “bag drop” and ambitious TAM/AI narratives risk damaging an otherwise valuable launch/Starlink business.
- Concerns also raised about bond weakness and near-junk ratings as signs of lender skepticism.